Open Source Predictions for 2011

Fri, Dec 31, 2010 with tags gpl , ipad , google , boxee , firefox , netflix , 2011 , predictions , rim , playbook , apache , java , android , chromium , opensource

Following on the heels of my somewhat successful predictions regarding Open Source for 2010, I now my present my 10 predictions for Open Source in 2011.

  1. On the PC front Netflix will continue to require Silverlight for streaming, although they’ll finally get their act together and make it work well with GPU acceleration. Interfaces for Netflix will all move the route of the PS3 and adopt an HTML based interface.

  2. Google will meet it’s match and discover that the movie and TV studios really don’t want to work with them and will be forced to pull the plug on Google TV.

  3. Although Google will continue to tout the number of Android phones available as a success metric for the project, it will continue to see fragmentation and iPhone will remain the phone to beat.

  4. Despite all of the Android tablets and the upcoming Blackberry Playbook, the iPad will remain dominant and continue to sell more than all the other tablets combined.

  5. RIM will introduce a new OS for their phones based on the Playbook’s OS. The OS will be open sourced but will fail to attract any sort of market movement.

  6. Chromium OS from Google will land like a lead balloon. Initial reviews of the device will be severely hampered by the inability to access many services without Internet access.

  7. The browser wars will continue to heat up (hello, 1998!). Firefox’s market share will remain relatively stagnant while Chrome’s market share grows. This stagnation will result in some shakeups at Mozilla as they attempt to re-evaluate the market landscape. This will eventually lead to a new and lighter desktop browser based off Firefox.

  8. Open Source hardware outside of Android will generally continue to falter. This includes OLPC and the Boxee Box (re-run from last year).

  9. We’ll see the first lawsuit regarding ownership of code in an Open Source project after the code of an original author has been patched out and the project license changed (re-run from last year).

  10. Apache will have a significant long term shakeup regarding their relationship with Java. I’d imagine that this means that the Java projects are jettisoned into a new foundation.

There are a few predictions in this list that are rather ambitious - particularly the creation of a new browser from Mozilla and pulling the plug on Google TV. I was at least partially right on 5/10 predictions last year, I’m feeling a little more confident this year and saying that I’ll get 6 correct this year, making me correct more often then not.

What at your thoughts on these predictions? Too much? Too easy?